Analabs ~ current trading at 78.5 sen , PE 4.48 ~ appears very attractive to me.
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Monday, March 30, 2009
Portfolio ~ 30 Mar 2009
No trading for me today.KNM dropped to 37.5 sen.
Gpacket dropped to 80.5 sen.
Supermax up to 87.5 sen.
TMI dropped to RM 2.21
US Obama start to squeeze General motor for merging.
CIMB showing sign of trouble ahead when it gives option to employee to take unpaid leaves.
TMI goin down again. Calculation for TMI a little complicated. There is the 5 to 4 right issues at 1.12 with x-price of 1.60+ , therefore I need to average all the pricing after the presuming I exchage the right with the shares and blah .. blah ... blah . But it still come back to one issues that I still could not find out ? What is the EPS for the next 12 month. And what is the EPS after the dilution of the shares ? Naa ... I better leave TMI to other "complex" player.
My portfolio still holding on ... by just a whisker of a cat ! Phew !
GPACKET ~ The Foolish Frontliner
GPacket
Current Price ~ 84 sen
This company involved in WIMAX and is one of the 4 companies awarded with the license.
Wimax industries could be likened to some sort of an uncharted territory with almost zero lay out for anyone to built. In this kind of scenario, the best strategy is the to let some fool to explore in the front and then follow quietly within some safe distance watching every step that Gpacket is doing. It is just a matter of time Gpacket will make a grave mistake and got killed. And obviously the beneficial will fell to one and the only one ~ the YTLe-solution.
Conclusion :
GPAcket : I will not touch at all.
YTLe-solution : can collect if below 30 sen
Sunday, March 29, 2009
KNM ~ Wrong Time, Wrong Price
KNM
Current Price ~ 41 sen
KNM had made one BIG wrong decision. To acquire Borsig at the wrong price and wrong time.
In cyclical business, the best time to acquire is during the bottom cycle. It is still okay to acquire at the mid cycle, but to acquire at the very PEAK of Mount Everest was definitely a "Gone Case" scenario.
During this peak, Borsig had been able to asked a for very very high price, with oil price of USD 150 as a backup reason. How KNM fall into this showed that the management is a big FOOL of all the fool. Even a fool could see the oil price will fell down, and fell down it did ... all the way to below USD 40 in less than 2 month after the acquisition. This is no hindsight theory. At the time of acquisition, the high oil price had already showed its dire effects to a lot of business and with the inventories that keep rising and rising, it was as obvious as it could be that the ridiculous high oil price could not be sustained any longer.
Let's come back to now.
What do we expect to see in the coming 1st quarter report on May ?
Oil price for the first 3 months hovering at average of USD 43.
Some may argue that oil price started to go over USD 50 this few days but please look at the inventory level ! At 16 YEARS record HIGH and at the middle of Global Recession !
But of course the counter argument will be to look at how CHEAP the KNM has dropped too.
So, what is the liquisation value for KNM.
I will take the current asset and minus all the total liabilities ... and it came out "minus 19 sen" per share .... meaning I should not use the liquidation value to value KNM.
Hey ! How come I don't take account of the Non-current asset !
Because this is how I value the "liquidation value" of a company who is "not planning to liquidify."
Therefore, the KNM value will depend on its next 12 month earning.
And this is a definitely just a GUESSING game, meaning I could not take any credit even if my guessing is 100 % right, but I should learn some lesson for making the wrong guess.
My guess for the coming EPS will be Q1 at 1.9 sen, Q2 at 1.75 sen, Q3 at 1.5 sen & Q4 at 1.25 sen. This will bring the whole year EPS to 6.25 sen. But looking at how the EPS keep dropping in stepcase fashion .... the psychological effect will bring down it market PE to 6.5 at the end of the year.
Conclusion : KNM should worth less then 35 sen a share to me !
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Current Price ~ 41 sen
KNM had made one BIG wrong decision. To acquire Borsig at the wrong price and wrong time.
In cyclical business, the best time to acquire is during the bottom cycle. It is still okay to acquire at the mid cycle, but to acquire at the very PEAK of Mount Everest was definitely a "Gone Case" scenario.
During this peak, Borsig had been able to asked a for very very high price, with oil price of USD 150 as a backup reason. How KNM fall into this showed that the management is a big FOOL of all the fool. Even a fool could see the oil price will fell down, and fell down it did ... all the way to below USD 40 in less than 2 month after the acquisition. This is no hindsight theory. At the time of acquisition, the high oil price had already showed its dire effects to a lot of business and with the inventories that keep rising and rising, it was as obvious as it could be that the ridiculous high oil price could not be sustained any longer.
Let's come back to now.
What do we expect to see in the coming 1st quarter report on May ?
Oil price for the first 3 months hovering at average of USD 43.
Some may argue that oil price started to go over USD 50 this few days but please look at the inventory level ! At 16 YEARS record HIGH and at the middle of Global Recession !
But of course the counter argument will be to look at how CHEAP the KNM has dropped too.
So, what is the liquisation value for KNM.
I will take the current asset and minus all the total liabilities ... and it came out "minus 19 sen" per share .... meaning I should not use the liquidation value to value KNM.
Hey ! How come I don't take account of the Non-current asset !
Because this is how I value the "liquidation value" of a company who is "not planning to liquidify."
Therefore, the KNM value will depend on its next 12 month earning.
And this is a definitely just a GUESSING game, meaning I could not take any credit even if my guessing is 100 % right, but I should learn some lesson for making the wrong guess.
My guess for the coming EPS will be Q1 at 1.9 sen, Q2 at 1.75 sen, Q3 at 1.5 sen & Q4 at 1.25 sen. This will bring the whole year EPS to 6.25 sen. But looking at how the EPS keep dropping in stepcase fashion .... the psychological effect will bring down it market PE to 6.5 at the end of the year.
Conclusion : KNM should worth less then 35 sen a share to me !
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Saturday, March 28, 2009
SUPERMAX
Date ~ 28.03.09
Stock : Supermax
Current price : 85 sen
I did a screening on Supermax last 4 quarters ending 31 Dec 08.
My calculation showed its True EPS (leno's style) was only 5.5 sen.
Therefore it is trading at PE 15 !
I don't see any prospect of Supermax improving its current earning.
The director is still very poor in decision making and managing the company.
Conclusion : It's worth less than 79 sen per share to me !
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Stock : Supermax
Current price : 85 sen
I did a screening on Supermax last 4 quarters ending 31 Dec 08.
My calculation showed its True EPS (leno's style) was only 5.5 sen.
Therefore it is trading at PE 15 !
I don't see any prospect of Supermax improving its current earning.
The director is still very poor in decision making and managing the company.
Conclusion : It's worth less than 79 sen per share to me !
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Friday, March 27, 2009
Portfolio 27 Mar 2009
No trading today.
I add in the calculated % rate p.a. return of the whole portfolio.
How I do it, is still a mystery ... whoa !
I read somewhere that oil inventory is still very high and have ballooned to some 16 years high !
KNM still trading at above 40 sen ! Can you believe it ? I still bet it will drop below 40 sen in the next 3 months ... or 6 months.
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Portfolio 26 Mar 2009
No trading for me today.
I have received my Analabs dividend and already cash-in the cheque.
So, I will transfered the amount in the "dividend column" and add them into my Cash column. Simple isn't it ? Of course I do keep another record for all the dividends I received in another .... what I called "useless files."
Phew !
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Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Axiata
Can anyone tell me what is the estimate net profit for the next 12 months for this stock ?
Last 12 months
Net Profit RM 471 million
EPS 13 sen
If I presumed the next 12 months of TMI is the same, then TMI will be trading at PE 15 at trading price of RM 2.00 !
Why should I pay more than RM 2.00 for something with PE more than 15 ?
Last 12 months
Net Profit RM 471 million
EPS 13 sen
If I presumed the next 12 months of TMI is the same, then TMI will be trading at PE 15 at trading price of RM 2.00 !
Why should I pay more than RM 2.00 for something with PE more than 15 ?
Share Price ~ Demand and Supply ... where got such thing ?
People asks why share price go up ?
People asks why share price go down ?
People answers because of Demand and Supply.
I say where got such thing ?
If there is Buyer queeing in 10,000,000 shares at RM 1.00
and there is Seller queeing in only 100 shares to sell at RM 2.00
... will the price start to go up to RM 2.00 ?
The answer is NO !
There is no such thing as share price going up or going down.
It is just whether the price is transacted at higher or lower price.
What is the different ? Big different wooo .....
People asks why share price go down ?
People answers because of Demand and Supply.
I say where got such thing ?
If there is Buyer queeing in 10,000,000 shares at RM 1.00
and there is Seller queeing in only 100 shares to sell at RM 2.00
... will the price start to go up to RM 2.00 ?
The answer is NO !
There is no such thing as share price going up or going down.
It is just whether the price is transacted at higher or lower price.
What is the different ? Big different wooo .....
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Leno Try To Blog
24 Mar 2009
Hmm ... what do you want to know ? Ask me.
Let's start with Share Market.
Hmm .. there are always a conflict of interest when we trying to share information on share market. Should I share ? Should I not share ? Well ... share when necessary ... don't share when not necessary. I think I better stay with my current strategy of sharing what share that I will not buy rather than what I am buying.
On financial statement analysis.
Accounting profit is whatever the accounting rules say it is.
And it is the investor responsibility to analyse and try to restructure the balance sheet to derived the whatever investor try to seek. I cannot devolve more. Conflict of interest.
Management
1. Objective ~ what are you try to achieve.
2. Planning ~ how are you going to achieve the objective.
3. Organising ~ arranging your plan into more organised ?
4. Actuating ~ action ! action ! action !
5. Evaluation ~ evaluate your performance, see how everything going. Need a change of plan or objective ?
6. GOAL !
Hmm ... what do you want to know ? Ask me.
Let's start with Share Market.
Hmm .. there are always a conflict of interest when we trying to share information on share market. Should I share ? Should I not share ? Well ... share when necessary ... don't share when not necessary. I think I better stay with my current strategy of sharing what share that I will not buy rather than what I am buying.
On financial statement analysis.
Accounting profit is whatever the accounting rules say it is.
And it is the investor responsibility to analyse and try to restructure the balance sheet to derived the whatever investor try to seek. I cannot devolve more. Conflict of interest.
Management
1. Objective ~ what are you try to achieve.
2. Planning ~ how are you going to achieve the objective.
3. Organising ~ arranging your plan into more organised ?
4. Actuating ~ action ! action ! action !
5. Evaluation ~ evaluate your performance, see how everything going. Need a change of plan or objective ?
6. GOAL !
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