Impact of tsunami not as bad as anticipated, says Perodua

KUALA LUMPUR: Perusahaan Otomobil Kedua Sdn Bhd (Perodua) expects production to “fully recover” by July following the shortage of components and spare parts due to the earthquake that hit Japan in March.

Managing director Datuk Aminar Rashid Salleh said disruptions to its vendors' operations were minimal and that it was sourcing parts for the affected components elsewhere as counter-measures where necessary.

“With the help of our partner, Daihatsu Motor Co, we were able to recover faster,” he said at a briefing on the impact of the Japan supply chain disruption yesterday.

He said the company's inventories were “slightly affected” in May, with overall production between March and June expected to slip by an average of 11%.

“By July, we expect to fully recover and we will try to recover whatever shortfall we had in terms of production and sales,” he said, adding that a total of 23 engine components and accessories involving the Myvi, Viva and Alza models were affected by the Japanese disaster.

In early April, the company said in a statement that it was impacted by the earthquake and tsunami and that the inventories at Perodua's plant and its vendors were sufficient until May.

“The impact was not as bad as anticipated,” Aminar said yesterday, adding that immediately after the earthquake, the area where its Japanese vendors were located was closed down and access to the site prohibited.

“Many original equipment manufacturers had to shut down. Owners of factories were not allowed to go into the area and disclose information (to us) immediately.”

Aminar said one of the reasons for the early recovery was Perodua's high local content, with some vendors resorting to alternate sources for the parts.

He said about 12% of Perodua's total vendors (both local and foreign) were affected by the Japanese earthquake.

Despite the disruption in production, he is still confident of Perodua hitting its sales target of 195,000 units this year. Aminar said the company expected good response for its next model, to be launched sometime between May and August, as well as its existing models.

“We still have seven to eight months left (to achieve the sales target),” he said.

Aminar declined to disclose any details about the new model, which has been rumoured to be based on the Myvi platform. The Myvi is Perodua's best-selling model currently.

In the first quarter, Perodua sold 45,700 units. Aminar said the company sold about 13,800 units in April.

Perodua's shareholders are UMW Corp Sdn Bhd (38%), MBM Resources Bhd (20%), Daihatsu Motor Co Ltd (20%), PNB Equity Resource Corp Sdn Bhd (10%), Daihatsu (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd 5%, Mitsui & Co Ltd 4.2% and Mitsui & Co (Asia Pacific) Pte Ltd 2.8%.

On another note, Aminar said emphatically that Perodua would not benefit from a merger with Proton Holdings Bhd.

“We were given the opportunity to make our stand (on the merger) to the Economic Council. We reiterated our stand and we don't see the benefit,” he said.

Aminar, however, said that Perodua was keen to look into new areas where it could collaborate with Proton.

As it stands now, Perodua, which is partly owned by Japan's Daihatsu Motor Corp, makes the cylinder heads for Proton's Campro engines and further cooperation and joint ventures in parts and components are being considered.

In a recent news report, Proton group managing director Datuk Syed Zainal Abidin Syed Mohamed Tahir was quoted as saying that Proton had met with the management of Perodua and had identified core areas which could be improved.

“They are vendor development, procurement and quality improvement,” he was quoted as saying.

Said Aminar: “We can enhance further the strategic collaboration (between Proton and Perodua) and we are looking at new areas where we can collaborate.”

Transmission plant to start production by late 2012

KUALA LUMPUR: Perusahaan Otomobil Kedua Sdn Bhd (Perodua) expects to start construction of a plant that will produce locally-made electronic automatic transmission (EAT) systems for its cars by the fourth quarter.

Managing director Datuk Aminar Rashid Salleh said Perodua vehicles’ EAT system was currently imported from technical partner Daihatsu Motor Co’s plant in Japan.

“We will be relocating the EAT facility from Japan to Malaysia,” he told a media briefing yesterday, adding that the relocation and construction of the plant would cost between RM200mil and RM300mil.

“We expect to begin production by the fourth quarter of 2012. For the first few years, the EAT system will be catered to the domestic market and then subsequently for export.

“This (the relocation of the plant to Malaysia) will help bring down our cost. It is part of our five-year road map to become more efficient and competitive.”

Aminar, said the company had yet to decide on the location of the facility but might consider near its production plant in Sungai Choh, Selangor.

According to reports, the EAT system – which helps improve fuel consumption and enables a smoother gear-shifting feel – is currently incorporated in the Perodua Myvi and Alza.

Moshi-Mushy Mushroom

Unanswered Questions

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An age-old difficulty for investors is ascertaining the value of future growth. In the preface to the first edition of Security Analysis, the authors said as much, "Some matters of vital significance, eg., the determination of the future prospects of an enterprise, have received little space, because little of definite value can be said on the subject."

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Clearly, a company that will earn $1 per share today and $2 per share in 5 years is worth considerably more than a company with identical current per share earnings and no growth. This is especially true if the growth of the first company is likely to continue and is not subject to great variability.
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Another complication is that companies can grow in many different ways - for eg. selling the same number of units at higher prices; selling more units at the same (oe even lower) prices; changing the product mix, or developing an entirely new product line. Obviously, some forms of growth are worth more than others.

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There is a significant downside to paying up for growth or, worse, to obsessing over it. Graham and Dodd astutely observed that "analysis is concerned primarily with values which are supported by facts and not with those which depend largely upon expectations."

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Strongly preferring the actual to the possible, they regarded the "future as a hazard which his conclusions must encounter rather than as the source of his vindication."

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Investor should be especially vigilant against focusing on growth to the exclusion of all else, including the risk of overpaying. Again, Graham and Dodd were spot on, warning that "carried to its logical extreme, . . . [there is no price] too high for a good stock, and that such an issue was equally 'safe' after it had advanced to 200 as it has been at 25."

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Precisely this mistake was made when stock prices surged skyward during the Nifty Fifty era of the early 1970s and the dot-com bubble of 1999 to 2000.

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The flaw in such a growth-at any-price approach becomes obvious when the anticipated growth fails to materialize. When the future disappoints, what should investor do ? Hope growth resumes ? Or give up and sell ? Indeed failed growth stocks are often so aggresively dumped by disappointed holders that their price falls to levels at which value investors, who stubbornly pay little or nothing for growth characteristics, become major holders.

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Collected another 132,800 Insas at avg 57.22 sen

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Today, i collected another 132,800 Insas at average 57.22 sen.
Wish me LUCK !
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Currently holding 758,100 PMCorp at avg 13.1 sen

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Has been slowly collecting PMCorp shares,
now holding 758,100 shares at avg 13.1 sen.
Wish me LUCK !
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