Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Friday, January 21, 2011
Unanswered Questions
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An age-old difficulty for investors is ascertaining the value of future growth. In the preface to the first edition of Security Analysis, the authors said as much, "Some matters of vital significance, eg., the determination of the future prospects of an enterprise, have received little space, because little of definite value can be said on the subject."
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Clearly, a company that will earn $1 per share today and $2 per share in 5 years is worth considerably more than a company with identical current per share earnings and no growth. This is especially true if the growth of the first company is likely to continue and is not subject to great variability.
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Clearly, a company that will earn $1 per share today and $2 per share in 5 years is worth considerably more than a company with identical current per share earnings and no growth. This is especially true if the growth of the first company is likely to continue and is not subject to great variability.
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Another complication is that companies can grow in many different ways - for eg. selling the same number of units at higher prices; selling more units at the same (oe even lower) prices; changing the product mix, or developing an entirely new product line. Obviously, some forms of growth are worth more than others.
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There is a significant downside to paying up for growth or, worse, to obsessing over it. Graham and Dodd astutely observed that "analysis is concerned primarily with values which are supported by facts and not with those which depend largely upon expectations."
There is a significant downside to paying up for growth or, worse, to obsessing over it. Graham and Dodd astutely observed that "analysis is concerned primarily with values which are supported by facts and not with those which depend largely upon expectations."
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Strongly preferring the actual to the possible, they regarded the "future as a hazard which his conclusions must encounter rather than as the source of his vindication."
Strongly preferring the actual to the possible, they regarded the "future as a hazard which his conclusions must encounter rather than as the source of his vindication."
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Investor should be especially vigilant against focusing on growth to the exclusion of all else, including the risk of overpaying. Again, Graham and Dodd were spot on, warning that "carried to its logical extreme, . . . [there is no price] too high for a good stock, and that such an issue was equally 'safe' after it had advanced to 200 as it has been at 25."
Investor should be especially vigilant against focusing on growth to the exclusion of all else, including the risk of overpaying. Again, Graham and Dodd were spot on, warning that "carried to its logical extreme, . . . [there is no price] too high for a good stock, and that such an issue was equally 'safe' after it had advanced to 200 as it has been at 25."
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Precisely this mistake was made when stock prices surged skyward during the Nifty Fifty era of the early 1970s and the dot-com bubble of 1999 to 2000.
Precisely this mistake was made when stock prices surged skyward during the Nifty Fifty era of the early 1970s and the dot-com bubble of 1999 to 2000.
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The flaw in such a growth-at any-price approach becomes obvious when the anticipated growth fails to materialize. When the future disappoints, what should investor do ? Hope growth resumes ? Or give up and sell ? Indeed failed growth stocks are often so aggresively dumped by disappointed holders that their price falls to levels at which value investors, who stubbornly pay little or nothing for growth characteristics, become major holders.
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Tuesday, January 18, 2011
Collected another 132,800 Insas at avg 57.22 sen
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Today, i collected another 132,800 Insas at average 57.22 sen.
Wish me LUCK !
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Today, i collected another 132,800 Insas at average 57.22 sen.
Wish me LUCK !
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Friday, January 14, 2011
Currently holding 758,100 PMCorp at avg 13.1 sen
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Has been slowly collecting PMCorp shares,
now holding 758,100 shares at avg 13.1 sen.
Wish me LUCK !
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Has been slowly collecting PMCorp shares,
now holding 758,100 shares at avg 13.1 sen.
Wish me LUCK !
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Friday, December 17, 2010
No turning back to agro-base economy, says Dr M
Friday December 17, 2010
KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia should not go back to an agriculture-based economy
because the country would not be able to achieve the economic growth that the
Government desires and overcome unemployment, said former prime minister
Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad.
“Sometime ago, the Government decided to focus on agriculture. However, we
have rejected agriculture because it was not able to solve the problem of
unemployment,” he said at a dialogue session on Vision 2020: Malaysia’s Looking
East concept here yesterday.
“We can still give attention to agriculture because it is making advances in terms
of technology and we cannot neglect that. But to depend entirely on agriculture
will not be productive.”
For example, he said, one acre (or 0.4ha) of land could not produce enough food
even for one family.
“However, if we build a factory on that one acre of land, then a factory can be
set up and create jobs for 500 people,” he said.
He said that even with modern agriculture, the Government would still not be able
to create enough jobs for the people.
“That is why we have switched to industrial-based economy but to do that,
we must equip our people with necessary knowledge and skills,” he said.
He said Malaysians were not inferior but instead would be able to perform like
their counterparts in Europe and Japan if they were given necessary training.
Dr Mahathir also urged the country not to rely on foreign direct investment (FDI)
for economic growth.
“Japan and South Korea did not depend on FDI but they got the technology from
other developed countries and worked with their own capacity to maximise the return
of their companies,” he said.
He said Malaysian companies now had the capacity, capital and management
to “grow big” by acquiring foreign technology.
KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia should not go back to an agriculture-based economy
because the country would not be able to achieve the economic growth that the
Government desires and overcome unemployment, said former prime minister
Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad.
“Sometime ago, the Government decided to focus on agriculture. However, we
have rejected agriculture because it was not able to solve the problem of
unemployment,” he said at a dialogue session on Vision 2020: Malaysia’s Looking
East concept here yesterday.
“We can still give attention to agriculture because it is making advances in terms
of technology and we cannot neglect that. But to depend entirely on agriculture
will not be productive.”
For example, he said, one acre (or 0.4ha) of land could not produce enough food
even for one family.
“However, if we build a factory on that one acre of land, then a factory can be
set up and create jobs for 500 people,” he said.
He said that even with modern agriculture, the Government would still not be able
to create enough jobs for the people.
“That is why we have switched to industrial-based economy but to do that,
we must equip our people with necessary knowledge and skills,” he said.
He said Malaysians were not inferior but instead would be able to perform like
their counterparts in Europe and Japan if they were given necessary training.
Dr Mahathir also urged the country not to rely on foreign direct investment (FDI)
for economic growth.
“Japan and South Korea did not depend on FDI but they got the technology from
other developed countries and worked with their own capacity to maximise the return
of their companies,” he said.
He said Malaysian companies now had the capacity, capital and management
to “grow big” by acquiring foreign technology.
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
PMCorp : Balance Sheet ~ 2010 Q3
First glance
Cash RM 104,096
Total Debt RM 65,062
Net Cash 6 sen per share.
Strong balance sheet.
How about "Net Cash Equavalent" assets ?
Net "Cash Equavalent" assets stands at (8+15-9) = 14 sen per share.If i add "unquoted invested after provision of 14 sen,
the liquidity value will be no less than (14+14) = 28 sen.
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PMCorp current price at 12.5 sen appears "attractive" to me.
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PMCorp : Annual Report 2009
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
For the financial year ended 31 December 2009, the Group recorded a revenue of RM72.9 million compared with RM125.0 million in the previous financial year. The decline in revenue was mainly due to the discontinuation of products by the Group’s food and confectionery business that did not fit with its direction or had low margins or slow sales. The rationalization of its product portfolio coupled with the rebranding of key house brands resulted in a temporary drop in revenue.
For the financial year ended 31 December 2009, the Group recorded a revenue of RM72.9 million compared with RM125.0 million in the previous financial year. The decline in revenue was mainly due to the discontinuation of products by the Group’s food and confectionery business that did not fit with its direction or had low margins or slow sales. The rationalization of its product portfolio coupled with the rebranding of key house brands resulted in a temporary drop in revenue.
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Despite the lower revenue, the Group had achieved improved results, posting a marginal pre-tax loss of RM0.1 million compared with a pre-tax loss of RM36.2 million in the previous year. The improvement was due to significantly lower finance cost and also the stabilization of the global economy as well as strong recovery of Malaysia’s economy in the fourth quarter. The economic recovery enabled the Group to record gains on foreign exchange and a much lower allowance for diminution in value of investments compared with significant losses or allowances in the previous year. For the financial year, the Group’s results were affected by higher advertising and promotion expenditure incurred for its product rebranding exercise.
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The Group had in December 2008 and January 2009 repaid a substantial amount of its banks borrowings. This improved the financial position of the Group, thus placing the Group in a better position to focus and channel its resources on expanding its food and confectionery business.
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REVIEW OF OPERATIONS
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The Group is primarily engaged in the manufacturing, marketing and distribution of food and confectionery products through its wholly-owned subsidiary company, Network Foods International Ltd (NFIL). The Network Foods group operates out of Malaysia, Singapore and Hong Kong and exports to more than 50 countries.
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Malaysia
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In Malaysia, the Group’s operations are undertaken by two NFIL subsidiaries, Network Foods Industries Sdn Bhd (NFI) and Network Foods (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd (NFM).
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The Group had in December 2008 and January 2009 repaid a substantial amount of its banks borrowings. This improved the financial position of the Group, thus placing the Group in a better position to focus and channel its resources on expanding its food and confectionery business.
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REVIEW OF OPERATIONS
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The Group is primarily engaged in the manufacturing, marketing and distribution of food and confectionery products through its wholly-owned subsidiary company, Network Foods International Ltd (NFIL). The Network Foods group operates out of Malaysia, Singapore and Hong Kong and exports to more than 50 countries.
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Malaysia
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In Malaysia, the Group’s operations are undertaken by two NFIL subsidiaries, Network Foods Industries Sdn Bhd (NFI) and Network Foods (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd (NFM).
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NFI manufactures chocolate and confectionery products under established brands such as Tudor Gold, Crispy, Tango, Kandos and Kiddies.
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During the year under review, NFI’s revenue decreased by 30.1% to RM47.5 million due to weak market sentiments in the domestic market. However, exports continued to increase and contributed 50% of its total sales.
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During the year, the company undertook a major rebranding exercise for several of its products. This undertaking, which involved the improvement of product quality, taste and packaging, successfully elevated their brand positioning and greatly improved market acceptance.
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During the year, the company undertook a major rebranding exercise for several of its products. This undertaking, which involved the improvement of product quality, taste and packaging, successfully elevated their brand positioning and greatly improved market acceptance.
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For the financial year under review, the company recorded a reduced profit of RM3.2 million. The lower profit was due to the significantly higher advertising and promotion expenditure that was necessary to relaunch the upgraded products.
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As part of the company’s continual effort to grow its markets, NFI will strive to secure ISO22000:2005 standards so as to be able to export to Britain and European Union countries. ISO22000:2005 is a Food Safety Management System in the International Organization for Standardization and will be used in tandem with our existing ISO9001:2008 and HACCP certifications.
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NFM is the marketing and distribution arm of the Network Foods group and also acts for other agency lines in the distribution of their products.
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For the financial year under review, NFM recorded a lower revenue of RM32.9 million due to temporary market disruptions resulting from product rationalization undertaken by the company as well as its ongoing exercise to improve product quality, taste and packaging. Consequently, NFM suffered a loss before tax of RM4.3 million. During this transitional period, NFM continued to relaunch some existing house brands while adding new agency lines, and creating new house brands on other food items. It expects to return to profitability in this financial year.
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NFI completed the acquisition of the piece of property adjoining its existing factory in Shah Alam. The enlarged site will allow for the Group’s manufacturing, sales and distribution divisions to be situated in one central location. This will result in improved efficiencies and better synergies in the operations of the two companies as well as making adequate allowance for future growth in manufacturing and warehousing capacity. Construction is expected to commence in the second half of 2010.
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Singapore and Hong Kong
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The operations of the Group in Singapore and in Hong Kong are undertaken by Network Foods Distribution Pte Ltd (NFD) and Network Foods (Hong Kong) Ltd (NFHK) respectively. During the year under review, NFD undertook aggressive marketing to establish the revamped Tudor Gold and Crispy brands. This has led to an improvement in revenue and profitability in the fourth quarter of 2009. Despite operating under a difficult economic environment in Hong Kong, NFHK performed satisfactorily in 2009 and managed to record revenue and profit which are comparable to the previous year.
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Singapore and Hong Kong
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The operations of the Group in Singapore and in Hong Kong are undertaken by Network Foods Distribution Pte Ltd (NFD) and Network Foods (Hong Kong) Ltd (NFHK) respectively. During the year under review, NFD undertook aggressive marketing to establish the revamped Tudor Gold and Crispy brands. This has led to an improvement in revenue and profitability in the fourth quarter of 2009. Despite operating under a difficult economic environment in Hong Kong, NFHK performed satisfactorily in 2009 and managed to record revenue and profit which are comparable to the previous year.
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Collected another 40,000 PMCorp shares at 12.5 sen
Pan Malaysia Corporation
Today, I collected another 40,000 PMCorp shares at 12.5 sen.
Wish me LUCK !
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Today, I collected another 40,000 PMCorp shares at 12.5 sen.
Wish me LUCK !
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Monday, December 13, 2010
Perodua outlines its green strategy
Monday, December 13, 2010
"In the meantime, we will refocus on improving our internal combustion engine to be as good as those trending new green technologies," he said. Currently, the company is pushing for more improvements for its internal combustion engine by replacing its cast iron engine parts to full aluminum components in the first stage of its roadmap.
"Although we are still on internal combustion engines and with the effort that we have put in these engines will be on the same footing with hybrid and EV technologies. "The first stage is in the works, and the products would hit the market anytime in the next two to three years," he said.
Perodua is also working on a two-cylinder direct injection turbo-charged engine under its second stage roadmap for engine development. "The car will have more power by then with the extra boost and we strongly believe that with the turbo charged engines, we can improve fuel efficiency and cut down on carbon emissions, both by 30 per cent," he said.
Elaborating on the Electronic Automatic Transmission (E-AT) system meant for production soon, he said it has reached the final stage of production study. "We need to set up a completely different plant for the E-AT systems, and I'm sure investments of more than RM150 million will be made and production will start within two to three years. "We are currently going into the details like the plant layout and selecting the vendors that can help us put some of the components together," he said.
He added investments made could be considered as domestic direct investments (DDI), answering the government's call for the private sector to invest more. "This is the kind of technology transfer we desire from Daihatsu and they will help us train our local engineers, operators and vendors to be compliant. "E-AT is a high-technology dust free extremely sensitive system and quality is of the paramount criteria this time," he said.
With the move to reduce its carbon footprint and improve fuel efficiency, Aminar is calling on the government to recognise the carmaker's efforts and extend incentives for hybrid vehicles and EV to Perodua too. Besides, he added the company would continue to improve the plant's manufacturing facilities as well.
Touching on the widely discussed Proton-Perodua merger, he said the company does not know the outcome and recommendations of the study. "Let's wait for the announcement but we will proceed with our roadmap and address the issues as well as weaknesses we have currently.
"Allow us, together with Daihatsu, to continue on this exciting journey that we have. It will require some time to execute but this is the future as we see it," he said.
-Bernama
"In the meantime, we will refocus on improving our internal combustion engine to be as good as those trending new green technologies," he said. Currently, the company is pushing for more improvements for its internal combustion engine by replacing its cast iron engine parts to full aluminum components in the first stage of its roadmap.
"Although we are still on internal combustion engines and with the effort that we have put in these engines will be on the same footing with hybrid and EV technologies. "The first stage is in the works, and the products would hit the market anytime in the next two to three years," he said.
Perodua is also working on a two-cylinder direct injection turbo-charged engine under its second stage roadmap for engine development. "The car will have more power by then with the extra boost and we strongly believe that with the turbo charged engines, we can improve fuel efficiency and cut down on carbon emissions, both by 30 per cent," he said.
Elaborating on the Electronic Automatic Transmission (E-AT) system meant for production soon, he said it has reached the final stage of production study. "We need to set up a completely different plant for the E-AT systems, and I'm sure investments of more than RM150 million will be made and production will start within two to three years. "We are currently going into the details like the plant layout and selecting the vendors that can help us put some of the components together," he said.
He added investments made could be considered as domestic direct investments (DDI), answering the government's call for the private sector to invest more. "This is the kind of technology transfer we desire from Daihatsu and they will help us train our local engineers, operators and vendors to be compliant. "E-AT is a high-technology dust free extremely sensitive system and quality is of the paramount criteria this time," he said.
With the move to reduce its carbon footprint and improve fuel efficiency, Aminar is calling on the government to recognise the carmaker's efforts and extend incentives for hybrid vehicles and EV to Perodua too. Besides, he added the company would continue to improve the plant's manufacturing facilities as well.
Touching on the widely discussed Proton-Perodua merger, he said the company does not know the outcome and recommendations of the study. "Let's wait for the announcement but we will proceed with our roadmap and address the issues as well as weaknesses we have currently.
"Allow us, together with Daihatsu, to continue on this exciting journey that we have. It will require some time to execute but this is the future as we see it," he said.
-Bernama
Sunday, December 12, 2010
When Stock Prices Drop, Where's the Money?
QUOTED from BB investing notes Blogsite
When Stock Prices Drop, Where's the Money?
by Investopedia Staff
Monday, March 16, 2009
Have you ever wondered what happened to your socks when you put them into the dryer and then never saw them again? It's an unexplained mystery that may never have an answer. Many people feel the same way when they suddenly find that their brokerage account balance has taken a nosedive. So, where did that money go? Fortunately, money that is gained or lost on a stock doesn't just disappear. Read to find out what happens to it and what causes it.
Disappearing Money
Before we get to how money disappears, it is important to understand that regardless of whether the market is in bull (appreciating) or bear (depreciating) mode, supply and demand drive the price of stocks, and fluctuations in stock prices determine whether you make money or lose it.
So, if you purchase a stock for $10 and then sell it for only $5, you will (obviously) lose $5. It may feel like that money must go to someone else, but that isn't exactly true. It doesn't go to the person who buys the stock from you. The company that issued the stock doesn't get it either. The brokerage is also left empty-handed, as you only paid it to make the transaction on your behalf. So the question remains: where did the money go?
Leno's Response ~
This is an example of simple things are perceived wrongly or at least i will csaid "mal-represented." The answer or explanation lies firstly by re-correcting the "mal-representation," or simply re-stated the whole perception from the beginning.
When I bought a "second-hand" car from someone (similar as stocks which are traded thru secondary market), I will pay a certain amount for eg. RM 20,000 to Abu. Now, i am less RM 20,000 in my bank or just let presume my bank balance left zero after witdrew to pay Abu, in exchange for the ownership of the "CAR."
If another car of the same type is transacted at RM 15,000, let's say in between Ah Chong and Ramasamy, could we safely presumed my car has depreciated by RM 5,000 ?
If another car of the same type is transacted at RM 25,000 again between others buyer and seller, could I say, "WHOA ! I just made RM 5,000 !" ?
Funny right ? Of course by now, someone will try to educate me about the so-call "paper" loss or gain.
Now, let's say I sell-off my Car at RM 15,000 to Jay. Therefore Jay will have "less RM 15,000" by owning the car, Abu (the one who sold the car to me at the first place) still holding RM 20,000 but with no car and, I will have RM 15,000 and car-less as well.
When Stock Prices Drop, Where's the Money?
by Investopedia Staff
Monday, March 16, 2009
Have you ever wondered what happened to your socks when you put them into the dryer and then never saw them again? It's an unexplained mystery that may never have an answer. Many people feel the same way when they suddenly find that their brokerage account balance has taken a nosedive. So, where did that money go? Fortunately, money that is gained or lost on a stock doesn't just disappear. Read to find out what happens to it and what causes it.
Disappearing Money
Before we get to how money disappears, it is important to understand that regardless of whether the market is in bull (appreciating) or bear (depreciating) mode, supply and demand drive the price of stocks, and fluctuations in stock prices determine whether you make money or lose it.
So, if you purchase a stock for $10 and then sell it for only $5, you will (obviously) lose $5. It may feel like that money must go to someone else, but that isn't exactly true. It doesn't go to the person who buys the stock from you. The company that issued the stock doesn't get it either. The brokerage is also left empty-handed, as you only paid it to make the transaction on your behalf. So the question remains: where did the money go?
Leno's Response ~
This is an example of simple things are perceived wrongly or at least i will csaid "mal-represented." The answer or explanation lies firstly by re-correcting the "mal-representation," or simply re-stated the whole perception from the beginning.
When I bought a "second-hand" car from someone (similar as stocks which are traded thru secondary market), I will pay a certain amount for eg. RM 20,000 to Abu. Now, i am less RM 20,000 in my bank or just let presume my bank balance left zero after witdrew to pay Abu, in exchange for the ownership of the "CAR."
If another car of the same type is transacted at RM 15,000, let's say in between Ah Chong and Ramasamy, could we safely presumed my car has depreciated by RM 5,000 ?
If another car of the same type is transacted at RM 25,000 again between others buyer and seller, could I say, "WHOA ! I just made RM 5,000 !" ?
Funny right ? Of course by now, someone will try to educate me about the so-call "paper" loss or gain.
Now, let's say I sell-off my Car at RM 15,000 to Jay. Therefore Jay will have "less RM 15,000" by owning the car, Abu (the one who sold the car to me at the first place) still holding RM 20,000 but with no car and, I will have RM 15,000 and car-less as well.
Let's rephrase whole scenario using a table
Previously,
Abu got 1 car / RM 0 cash
I.. got 0 car / RM 20,000 cash
Jay got 0 car / RM 15,000 cash
_______________________________
total...1 car / RM 35,000 cash
Later
Abu got 0 car / RM 20,000 cash
I.. got 1 car / RM 0 cash
Jay got 0 car / RM 15,000 cash
________________________________
total...1 car / RM 35,000 cash
Now
Abu got 0 car / RM 20,000 cash
I.. got 0 car / RM 15,000 cash
Jay got 1 car / RM 0 cash
________________________________
total...1 car / RM 35,000 cash
The car and the cash are just shifting between the 3 of us.
The total cash remain the same at RM 35,000.
I have less RM 5,000 but could we said Abu had earned RM 5,000 from me ?
There is no FINAL answer until we truly figure out the true value of the car.
What if Jay found RM 100,000 cash inside the car drawer ? Obviously, both,Abu and I just missed or actually LOSS the RM 100,000 to Jay !
What if the car totally "unrepairable" broke down forever, just 1 day after Jay bought it ? Wow ! Now I just earn RM 15,000 evernthough i have less RM 5,000 from my initial RM 20,000 bank balance ?
The moral will come back the same. Transacted price tell us not much. Sooner or later, it is the "true" value of the car that determined who make or who lose what.
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Getting more Confused ?
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