Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Analabs (RM 1.09) ~ 10 Q1 report

Review of the Performance

For the quarter under review, the Group recorded a revenue of RM10.27 million, 26% below the revenue of the corresponding quarter of the preceding year as there was no contribution from the aquaculture operating unit which was undergoing upgrading and maintenance of its site during the current quarter. The other operating units have also registered a decline in revenue due to the weak prevailing operating environment.

As there was no revenue from the aquaculture operating unit, the Group’s profit before tax was lower by 25% when compared to the corresponding quarter of the preceding year. The corresponding reduction in the cost of procuring recycled products and the cost savings measures undertaken by the Group was effective in enabling certain operating units to register a higher profit despite lower turnover.


Prospects

On the backdrop of improving general economic climate, the Group’s prospects for the current financial year 2010 is expected to be satisfactory.

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The details of investments in quoted securities as at the end of the current financial quarter are set out below :-

Total investments at cost RM 17,036 m
Total investments at carrying value RM 15,836 m
Total investments at market value RM 15,516 m

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Friday, September 25, 2009

Sept 23 ~ Crude Oil Supplies 335.6 m , Inventories 9.1% above 5yr average

Oil Set for Biggest Weekly Drop Since July on Recovery Concern
By Ben Sharples

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Oil in New York is poised for its biggest weekly drop since July after U.S. sales of existing homes unexpectedly slumped, bolstering skepticism about the pace of recovery in the biggest energy consuming nation.

Oil has dropped 9 percent this week as an Energy Information Administration report showed a gain in U.S. fuel stockpiles, boosting speculation of a supply glut. Prices are also under pressure from a stronger dollar, which reduces the appeal of commodities as an inflation hedge.

“The home sales data in the U.S. was a trigger that contributed to a tumble in the oil price,” said David Moore, a commodity strategist with Commonwealth Bank of Australia. “The oil data from the EIA is relatively bearish, and on top of that the U.S. dollar recovered a little bit of ground.”

Crude oil for November delivery traded at $65.87 a barrel, down 2 cents, on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:56 a.m. in Sydney. Futures, which dropped 4.5 percent yesterday, are headed for the biggest decline since the week ended July 10. Prices have advanced 48 percent since the start of the year.

U.S. equities fell for a second day yesterday as sales of existing homes slumped and the Federal Reserve said it will cut the size of two programs meant to bolster credit markets. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 1 percent in New York and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.4 percent.

The dollar gained 0.1 percent to $1.4649 per euro at 9:57 in Sydney, from $1.4666 yesterday.

Supplies Increase

“We expect a hesitant recovery in the U.S. and in that context we’re going to get bits of data that disappoint, and that’s what we saw last night,” Moore said.

Supplies of crude oil rose 2.86 million barrels, to 335.6 million, the biggest increase since the week ended July 24, according to the Energy Department report released Sept. 23. Analysts had expected a 1.4 million-barrel decrease. The gain left stockpiles 9.1 percent above the five-year average.

U.S. gasoline stockpiles surged 5.41 million barrels last week, more than 10 times the gain forecast by analysts in a Bloomberg News survey, according to the report. Demand for the fuel slipped 2.3 percent to 8.79 million barrels a day, the lowest since January.

Inventories of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, rose 2.96 million barrels, almost double analyst estimates.

“There has been a lot of talk about green shoots, but we are still shedding jobs and oil demand is still going to drop by 2 million barrels this year,” said Rick Mueller, a director of oil markets at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. “There comes a point when you have to pay attention to the fundamentals.”

Brent crude for November settlement rose 1 cent to $64.83 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange at 10:06 a.m. Sydney time. Yesterday, the contract dropped $3.17, or 4.7 percent, to $64.82.
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Zeti: Domestic demand shows signs of economic recovery


Central bank governor sees better external demand in third quarter

KUALA LUMPUR:
The country’s domestic demand is showing clear signs of recovery from the fiscal stimulus and an accommodative monetary policy, says Bank Negara governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz. “We have seen the worst,” she told reporters after delivering a keynote address at the 5th Banking and Financial Law School 2009 conference yesterday.

Zeti expects an improvement in external demand in the third quarter and an expansion in gross domestic product (GDP) in the next three months. “We expect growth to be modest at the initial stage and improve more significantly next year,” she said, adding that there would be a revision in the country’s growth forecast in Budget 2010, to be tabled in parliament next month.

The Government expects the economy to shrink as much as 5% in 2009. The country’s economic contraction eased to 3.9% in the second quarter from a 6.2% decline in the first quarter.

Zeti said interest rates were also “appropriate” as government stimulus and improving overseas demand had helped boost economic recovery. The current interest rate level was supporting the demand for access to financing, she added. Bank Negara has cut its key rate from 3.5% in mid-November to 2% to spur growth.

RAM Holdings Bhd chief economist Dr Yeah Kim Leng said the economic recovery momentum had been rising since the first quarter. “The pace of recovery should be sustainable based on the economic indicators we have seen so far, with steady improvements in industrial production index and exports, especially in the second quarter,” he said. Yeah expects the country’s export level to turn positive in December and GDP to achieve positive growth in the fourth quarter. RAM’s GDP forecast is a contraction of 3.3% this year.

AmResearch Sdn Bhd senior economist Manokaran Mottain believes the country’s economy is currently in a recovery phase, backed by an upturn in global trade. “We are maintaining our GDP growth forecast of minus 3% this year, with a growth of 1% to 2% in the fourth quarter. Our GDP growth forecast in 2010 is 3% to 4%. “The Government’s stimulus package would be disbursed and help boost the economy into 2010,” he said.

On interest rates, he expects a review only upon a firmer recovery in the domestic economy.
“If economic growth is modest, then a revision in interest rates will only happen in the second half of 2010. It may even be flat for the whole year,” he said.

Yeah foresees interest rates remaining at 2% for the rest of the year, as any increase may derail economic recovery.

The central bank has kept interest rates unchanged for a fourth straight meeting last month.

On whether the country was experiencing a W-shaped recovery, Zeti said there was no credit crunch as financial institutions remained strong and continued to provide financing for domestic businesses. Only over-leveraged countries needed to reduce their indebtness, she said, adding: “Only if they restructure their financial system would they be able to see any sign of increase in consumption activity. “There could be a second round of impact on their financial system given the economic slowdown but, in Malaysia’s case, we never had that situation to begin with and our banks are financially very solid.”
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BNM Reserves ~ 15 Sep 09 : RM 329.9 b

The international reserves of Bank Negara Malaysia amounted to RM329.9 billion (equivalent to USD93.5 billion) as at 15 September 2009.

The reserves position is sufficient to finance 9.4 months of retained imports and is 3.8 times the short-term external debt.
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Friday, September 18, 2009

UPDATE ON LEADER'S 100MW COAL-FIRED POWER PROJECT

UPDATE ON LEADER'S 100MW COAL-FIRED POWER PROJECT IN CAMBODIA
- SIGNING OF THE POWER PURCHASE AGREEMENT AND IMPLEMENTATION AGREEMENT


We refer to our announcement dated 11 June 2009
on the signing of a Joint Venture and Shareholders Agreement
with Cambodia International Investment Development Group Co. Ltd ("CIIDG")
to build, own and operate the 100 MW coal-fired power plant project in Sihanoukville, Cambodia ("the Power Project") via Cambodia Energy Ltd ("CEL"),
a joint venture company between Leader Universal Holdings Berhad ("LEADER") and CIIDG,
with a percentage shareholding of 80% and 20% respectively.

LEADER is pleased to announce that the Company had on 17 September 2009 signed the following agreements in relation to the Power Project.

Announcement Details :

Power Purchase Agreement (“PPA”):

PPA was entered with the Electricite du Cambodge ("EDC"), a wholly state-owned limited liability enterprise incorporated by Royal Decree of the Kingdom of Cambodia. Under the PPA, EDC undertakes to purchase from LEADER on a minimum take basis of eighty-six percent of dependable capacity per annum and other terms and conditions as set out in the PPA.

Salient terms of PPA inter alia are as follows:
(a) Duration and validity of the PPA shall commence on the date of the PPA and shall continue for a period of thirty (30) years from the Commercial Operation Date of the Power Project, unless earlier terminated in accordance with the PPA and the Implementation Agreement.
(b) The Power Project shall consists of two(2) units of 50MW coal-fired electric power generating facility and a double circuit 230 kV transmission line;
(c) The base tariff for the electricity payments shall be USD 0.07212 per kilowatt hours with indexation. Any fluctuation in the fuel price shall be a pass-through and the base tariff shall be adjusted accordingly; and
(d) LEADER may novate the PPA to a project company to undertake and to perform all of the obligations of LEADER.

Implementation Agreement (“IA”)

IA was entered on even date with The Royal Government of Cambodia (“RGC”) represented by The Minister, Ministry of Industry, Mines and Energy (“MIME”), and The Minister of Economy and Finance ("MEF") for the implementation of the Power Project.

The salient terms inter alia of the IA are as follows:
(a) Duration of the IA shall commence with effect from the date of the IA and shall continue for the duration of the PPA unless it is terminated earlier pursuant to the provisions of the IA;
(b) MIME has granted LEADER the exclusive rights to design, finance, insure, construct and maintain and manage the Power Project on Build-Own-Operate ("BOO") basis;
(c) LEADER shall sell to EDC all the electricity generated from the Power Project pursuant to the PPA;
(d) RGC shall grant incentives according to the Investment and Taxation and other laws and related sub-decrees of the Kingdom of Cambodia for the purpose of development and operation of the Power Project; and
(e) LEADER may novate all its rights and obligations under the IA to a project company incorporated in Cambodia within 6 months from the date of the IA.

Pursuant to the provisions in the PPA and IA, LEADER will novate all its rights and obligations, subject to terms and conditions of the PPA and IA, to CEL to implement the Power Project.

Government Guarantee of Payment

MEF acting on behalf of RGC had provided a Government Guarantee of Payment dated 31 March 2008 ("RGC Guarantee") to Power Synergy Corporation Co. Ltd. ("PSC"), the original developer of the 200MW size power project ("200MW Power Project"), before the split into 2 power projects of 100MW size each, to guarantee the repayment of any sums due under the PPA.

The RGC Guarantee has been assigned by PSC with the consent of MEF acting on behalf of RGC to and in favour of LEADER in respect of the Power Project.

The salient terms inter alia of the RGC Guarantee are as follows :
(a) The RGC guarantee shall continue to be binding and shall be applicable to LEADER and its permitted successors and assigns for the duration of the PPA and IA;
(b) RGC agrees to provide
.....(i) guarantee on power purchase in the event of non-payment by EDC and
.....(ii) guarantee on the payment on the termination in accordance to the relevant conditions described in the PPA and IA;
(c) LEADER is entitled to assign or grant security over its rights under the RGC Guarantee to the project lenders.

These new PPA and IA shall supersede the PPA dated 27 March 2008 signed between EDC and PSC and the IA dated 27 March 2008 signed between RGC represented by The Minister of MIME and MEF and PSC respectively which were announced on 27 March 2008.
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Thursday, September 17, 2009

Auto Sales ~ August 09 : 48,538

KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 17

Sales of passenger cars and commercial vehicles in August rose 2.8 per cent, year-on-year, to 48,538 units, but compared to July this year, it was down by 3,390 units or 6.5 per cent.

MAA said the month-on-month decline was due to lower sales reported by Proton.
It said sales of passenger vehicles in August rose to 44,099 units from 42,864 units in the corresponding month, last year, while that of commercial vehicles rose to 4,439 units from 4,363 units.

For the eight months period to August this year, total industry volume fell to 351,550 units from 379,184 units in the same period last year.It said sales of passenger vehicles in the eight months period fell to 319,424 units from 345,917 units in the corresponding period last year.Sales of commercial vehicles dropped to 32,126 units from 33,267 units previously.

MAA said production of vehicles in August fell to 44,476 units from 46,316 units in the corresponding month last year.The association also said production of passenger vehicles in August fell to 40,865 units from 42,309 units in the corresponding month last year while that of commercial vehicles dropped to 3,611 units from 4,007 units.It said production of passenger vehicles in the eight months period fell to 293,175 units from 329,557 units recorded in the corresponding period last year, while that of commercial vehicles dropped to 28,216 units from 31,512 units.

MAA said sales volume for September is expected to be maintained as it will be a shorter working month due to the Hari Rara festive holidays.
-BERNAMA
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Saturday, September 12, 2009

CSC Steel ~ FS 09 Q2 : review of performance

17 Aug 2009

Review of performance

The Group achieved revenue and profit before tax for the current quarter of RM161.6 million and RM12.5 million respectively. This represents a significant reduction of RM274.1 million or 62.9% lower in revenue than that of its corresponding quarter.

As a result of the revenue contraction, profit before tax of RM55.0 million in the corresponding quarter was reduced by RM42.4 million or 77.2% to RM12.5 million.

The significant drop in revenue is due to both sale volume contraction and lower selling prices of our steel products due to the world economic downturn arising from the world financial crisis. As a result the Group registered a significantly lower profit before tax for the quarter under review.


Variation of results against preceding quarter

The Group’s revenue has decreased by 6.7%, from RM173.2 million in the preceding quarter to
RM161.6 million in this quarter. The decrease in revenue is generally due to lower selling prices of our steel products.

Despite the decrease in revenue, Group’s profit before tax increase by 68.1% from RM7.5 million in the preceding quarter to RM12.5 million this quarter due to lower raw material cost and recovery of doubtful debts of RM2.4 million.


Current year prospects

Steel market sentiment has improved and steel prices have staged an unexpected strong rebound since May 2009. This is largely due to steel mills having reduced their production volume effectively to sustain and increase steel prices.

In addition, strong steel demand in China has also helped in stabilizing the global steel market.
The Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) has just issued a new steel policy which aims to enhance the competitiveness of local industry and encourage the manufacture of more competitive products for international market. With improved market sentiment and increasing steel prices, the timing for the implementation of this new policy seems to be going smoothly as there were little opposing voices heard so far. However, industry players need more time to observe and adapt to the new policy.

Barring any unforeseen circumstances, the current steel market is expected to continue its optimistic movement for the rest of the year.

Copper prices drop again; precious metals gain

Friday, September 11, 2009
Copper prices drop again; precious metals gain

Copper prices were lower again Friday as inventories continued to rise in warehouses monitored in London, Shanghai, and New York and as buying by China dropped 20 percent in August from July, according to the customs office in Beijing.

London Metal Exchange inventories were up 0.2 percent on the day while Shanghai-monitored stockpiles were up 12 percent during the week.

December copper was down 3 cents to $2.85 per pound in New York trade,
while three-month copper dropped $44 to $6,250 per tonne in London.

Elsewhere on the LMI, most other base metals saw prices drop, but tin was higher on the session.

Meanwhile, precious metals prices rose in New York as gold exceeded $1,013 per troy ounce in morning trade as the US dollar continued to weaken, making gold look like a better investment.
December gold ended the floor trade session up $9.60 to $1,006.40 per troy ounce, while December silver added 3 cents to $16.70 per troy ounce and October platinum gained $31 to $1,323 per troy ounce.

December palladium followed platinum higher in morning trade, adding $2.55 to $296 per troy ounce by just before 10:30 a.m. in New York.

Downstream timber firms urged to tap improving demand

KUALA LUMPUR: Companies involved in downstream timber activities are encouraged to explore the opportunities of exporting to emerging markets like India, the Gulf countries and Pakistan while banks have to be more supportive.

Malaysian Timber Council (MTC) chief executive officer Cheah Kam Huan said although the activities worldwide had slowed down due to the recession, certain countries were showing signs of growth and the demand for wooden products had improved. “We are making inroads into countries like Dubai, United Arab Emirates and Oman as there are lots of construction activities going on,” he told StarBizWeek recently. “There are some companies exploring opportunities in these countries currently and MTC will continue to promote downstream as well as upstream products to the emerging markets through the participation of fairs and trade shows.”
However, he pointed out that the United States and European markets would remain the main export markets for Malaysia’s downstream timber products.

Cheah also urged companies to invest in new technology to produce better quality and new products.

According to MTC, Malaysia’s export of timber products in 2008 amounted to RM22.7bil, an increase of 0.1% over the previous year. Downstream activities contributed about 40% of total exports. Downstream products include mouldings, wooden frames, builders’ carpentry and joinery (BCJ) and wooden furniture. BCJ comprises flooring, windows and doors products.

The timber sector contributes about 4.5% to the nation’s gross domestic product annually. The peninsula produces more than 5 million cu m of logs annually, including rubber wood.

Cheah said downstream activities had made a lot of progress over the last 10 years but had been recently affected by the economic crisis globally. He said the industry would not view the current environment as encouraging as improvement in demand for timber products had been very slow, especially in the West. “Manufacturers affected by the export market will have to take a cautious approach to tide over this period,” he said, adding that the export figures for downstream activities this year would hardly match last year’s level.

He said the timber industry’s performance very much depended on the economic situation in the United States and Europe. “The picking up of the property and construction sectors in the West will boost the demand for timber products directly.” He pointed out that the Government’s target was to increase the contribution of downstream activities to 60% of total timber products export from 40% currently.

Financial support was key to the success of both downstream and upstream activities, Cheah said. “Banks have been reluctant to lend to all sectors, including the timber industry, since end of last year, thus the industry is facing problems in expansion,” he added.

Thumbs-up for ‘Najibnomics’

KUALA LUMPUR: Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak has covered good ground since taking office on April 3 with a number of positive policies and actions.

They include liberalising the New Economic Policy, ensuring greater transparency, speeding up the award of government infrastructure pro-jects and improving ties with Singa-pore to draw more foreign direct investments into Iskandar Malaysia, a development region in Johor twice the size of Singapore.

Aimed at stimulating the local economy, attracting foreign investments and foreign talent, reducing bureaucracy, tackling crime and corruption, effecting greater accountability and promoting national unity (through the 1Malaysia concept), Najib’s policies have been impressive.

CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, an independent brokerage and investment group headquartered in Hong Kong, described Najib’s positive economic and social reforms as “Najibnomics”, given his economics background.

With his background on industrial economics from the University of Nottingham, CLSA said Najib had been quick to effect various fiscal, government and structural reforms.
In its special strategy report on Malaysia, CLSA said: “Although he has until March 2013 to call for the next general election, we believe he has little choice but to work quickly as the clock is fast ticking.

“Najib not only has to implement new policies to reform the government and turn around the economy simultaneously, he has to deliver some decent results to ensure that the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition performs better than in the last general election in March 2008.”
On the economic front, CLSA said it expected the Malaysian economy to recover in 2010 while consumer sentiment was also improving.

In view of Malaysia’s high savings rate at 43.3% of the GDP which would support private consumption while the impact of weak imports from Western countries would not be too severe, it pointed to an economic recovery next year.

Malaysia’s 2009 GDP has been forecast to decline by 4 to 5% this year compared to a growth of 4.5% last year.

CLSA’s expectations are in line with that of Bank Negara Malaysia, which indicated that the country’s growth outlook for the second half of 2009 was expected to improve after the economy contracted at a slower rate of 3.9% in the second quarter of 2009 following a 6.2% contraction in the first quarter of the year.

The central bank said there were increasing signs that conditions in the global economy were stabilising as the pace of the decline in economic activity was moderating in advanced countries.
CLSA said that its recent contacts with Malaysian companies revealed that most were cautiously optimistic and were coping fairly well with the economic downturn.

“There has not been any high-profile debt default while non-performing loans in the banking system remain benign. Companies have merely been hit by shrinking revenues, thinning margins and higher receivables, while corporate governance issues have been sporadic.
“Most companies believe that the worst is over. Having said that, they do think the way forward will remain challenging as unemployment continues to creep up,” CLSA said.

The investment group also conducted a survey among 300 respondents, two-thirds of them from Kuala Lum-pur, and ascertained that Malay-sians were coping well with the downturn, with only 22% of them saying that their employment had been affected.
In terms of household income, 44% said they experienced a decline in income while 10% experienced an increase.
About 70% said they had changed their spending patterns, reducing expenditure on food, clothing as well as leisure.

Essentials like mortgages, utilities, transport, children’s education, healthcare and communications have been largely unaffected by the downturn.

CLSA said these simple surveys and feedback from companies and consumers seemed to tie in with the findings of the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research. — Bernama
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